A trader has shared their impressive trading portfolio performance, reporting a 25% year-to-date gain of $3,800,000. The significant contributors to this growth are RDDT and GOOG, both of which remain held strongly. The trader also maintains substantial hedges through puts in TSLA and PLTR, as detailed in the accompanying images of their current large positions and hedges.
On August 25, 2025, during Donald Trump’s second presidential term, a user on a popular financial forum is seeking advice for the day’s trading moves. The original poster aims to engage fellow retail investors or traders in a discussion about their strategies and potential actions for the upcoming market day. Interested parties are encouraged to share their insights and plans for navigating the financial landscape under current political conditions.
The original poster shares a straightforward trading strategy that led to 30 consecutive winning days on a simulated account and subsequent real-account access. The key principles include limiting trades to a maximum of two per day, adjusting trade sizes based on the outcome of the first trade, and always aligning trades with the prevailing market trend. This disciplined approach helped avoid common pitfalls like revenge trading and overtrading, promoting consistency and risk management for casual retail investors or traders.
The original poster anticipated a significant surge in Intel’s stock price due to the US government’s planned 10% stake acquisition through the CHIPS Act. Despite an initial intraday rise, the stock closed flat, which the poster found unexpectedly muted considering the substantial investment and emphasis on domestic chip manufacturing. This discrepancy between expectations and actual performance has left the casual investor pondering over market sentiment and potential future developments in the semiconductor sector.
Hedge funder John Devaney warns of a looming commercial real estate crisis, citing numerous defaults in major cities like Chicago, Denver, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Philadelphia. The issues stem from high-interest rates causing refinancing fears amid lower property valuations since the pandemic. Devaney predicts potential government intervention to aid troubled cities reliant on office space tax revenue, with significant wipeouts expected in commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS). Casual investors and traders should monitor this unfolding situation closely for potential market impacts.
The original poster inquired about a situation where their individual retirement account (IRA) with SoFi showed a 1% match, increasing their contributions from $7,000 to $7,070 for the year 2025. They expressed concern over the absence of an employer contribution and potential penalties. The poster, being new investors, sought clarity on whether they should withdraw the additional $70 or leave it as is.
The original poster expresses concerns about the upcoming FDA catalyst for MBOT (Microbot Medical), despite recent positive developments such as patent grants, Russell Microcap inclusion, and leadership hires indicating commercialization readiness. They argue that approval isn’t guaranteed and even with it, execution risks remain, citing examples like Tupperware. The poster, who is currently up by 30%, plans to sell after FDA approval due to potential challenges in the commercialization phase. They invite other holders to share their strategies regarding stock retention through commercialization.
The original poster is seeking input on determining a fair valuation for Alphabet Inc. ($GOOG), currently trading at around 22 PE and 17.6 EV/EBITDA ratios. They are considering various methods like Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), simple multiples, or a sum-of-the-parts breakdown, focusing on segments such as Search, YouTube, Cloud, and Other Bets. The poster is interested in understanding the community’s perspective on a reasonable margin of safety and potential fair value ranges, as well as when it might be considered a strong buy instead of merely a hold.
The original poster questions why NXP Semiconductors, with a market cap of around $60 billion, is included in the S&P500 while ASML, valued at approximately $293 billion, is not. Both are European-based semiconductor companies, with NXP being a holding company providing semiconductor solutions across multiple countries and ASML developing advanced semiconductor equipment systems. The poster seems to be curious about the criteria S&P500 uses for including companies, given these market cap disparities.
The original poster ponders the potential of combining options trading with PolyMarket, a prediction market platform, to generate profits. They propose using options Greeks and underlying data to estimate the market’s probability of an option expiring in-the-money, creating a probabilistic price model for expiration. The idea is then to compare these predictions with PolyMarket listings, like Bitcoin price range forecasts at specific times, aiming to construct a model that offers an edge over broader market expectations, leveraging the perceived efficiency of retail investor-driven prediction markets.